SkyTrade
Sign up
FeaturesPlatformSecuritySign in
Glossary · Trading basics

Break-even win rate

The share of trades you must win just to avoid losing money at a given payout; above 50% whenever the payout is below 100%.

By Sky Trade editorial teamUpdated

The break-even win rate answers a blunt question: how often do I have to be right just to stay where I am? For fixed-payout trades with equal stakes the formula is simple: break-even = 1 ÷ (1 + payout). With an 80% payout that is 1 ÷ 1.8 = 55.6%.

  • 70% payout → 58.8%
  • 80% payout → 55.6%
  • 90% payout → 52.6%

This number is the honest starting line for any method. A rule that is right 54% of the time sounds decent, but at an 80% payout it still loses money over many trades. The gap between the payout and 100% is the built-in cost of the product, and it is easy to underestimate.

The figure applies to many trades, not to one. Over 20 trades luck can push your results far above or below it; only a large sample tells you which side of the line you are really on. Track it honestly in a trading journal.

The profit calculator shows the break-even rate for any payout, and why most beginners lose explains what it means in practice.

Example

At an 85% payout, break-even is 1 ÷ 1.85 = 54.1%. Out of 100 trades with equal stakes, 54 wins still leave you slightly down; you need 55 to end up ahead.

Learn more in the academy

Related terms

Practise first, then decide

Every Sky Trade account comes with a $10,000 demo balance on the same prices and payouts as the real account. Create an account or read how the demo works.

Create an accountAbout the demo account