Confluence
Several independent pieces of evidence pointing to the same price area or direction, used to filter trade ideas.
Confluence means agreement. A level gains weight when, say, a previous swing low, a round number and a 61.8% Fibonacci level all cluster within a few pips. A trade idea gains weight when the higher-timeframe trend, the level and a candlestick signal all point the same way.
The important word is independent. RSI, Stochastic and CCI all measure roughly the same thing from the same prices, so three oscillators agreeing is closer to one opinion said three times. Genuine confluence mixes different kinds of evidence: structure (levels, trend), momentum (an oscillator) and timing (a candle pattern or the session).
Two risks come with the idea:
- Searching for confluence after you have already decided on a trade. With enough tools you can always find agreement; that is confirmation bias, not analysis.
- Waiting for perfect confluence, which rarely appears and usually arrives late.
A short checklist fixed in your plan — for example level, trend and signal candle — is more honest than an open-ended search. Confluence improves selection; it doesn't make any single trade a sure thing. See combining indicators and the entry on lagging indicators.
Yesterday's low at 1.2620, the 50% retracement at 1.2618 and a rising EMA 50 at 1.2623 form one zone. A hammer closing at 1.2625 on M5 adds timing: four pieces of evidence, still not a certainty.